Cause for Concern
I recently had a chance to see my favourite journalist/historian/writer speak about climate change and the effect it will have on global politics. I am talking, of course, about Gwynne Dyer.
Mr. Dyer was speaking to a packed theatre at the University of Alberta. His remarks were broad-ranging, insightful, and dryly laced with his typical gruff wit. But there was also a worried undertone that I've never heard from him before. Not the "call-to-arms", "let's-work-together-and-solve-this-thing" kind of worried that you often hear from activist speakers. His was a more "I-see-things-clearer-than-you-do-and-I-wish-I-didn't" sort of worried. He didn't say it out loud, of course; it was just something I noticed as he talked.
And when Gwynne Dyer seems upset, I get very concerned.
I'm already quite familiar with climate change. (Actually, I think I'm currently witnessing its early stages.) I think it will soon be a very serious problem, which is why over the years I've been trying my best to make things better. On their own, my efforts won't fix anything, of course. But at least I'll be able to stand tall and look the next generation in the eye with a clear conscience.
You see, as Mr. Dyer very rightly pointed out, the real danger in climate change boils down to exactly one thing: food. As the average temperature of the planet increases, the amount of energy in the earth's atmospheric systems will also increase. And it turns out that climatologists have a very good idea about what happens after that: the earth's two "desert latitudes" (i.e. regions that circle the planet about 30 degrees above and below the equator) will expand.
Places like the USA, China, and India will lose their most fertile land, and shortly thereafter be facing massive food shortages. Places like Canada, Britain, and Northern Europe will actually gain farmland, but not nearly enough to make up for what is lost in other areas. That's a very big problem, because it means that formally friendly neighbours will suddenly have very good reasons to fight with each other.
To paraphrase Dyer's own words, "These are not third world countries. These are technologically competent, wealthy nations that will be facing famine on a massive scale. And there is no such thing as 'right' and 'wrong' when your children are starving."
Or, to quote Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall (from a 2003 Pentagon report on this topic): "Humans fight when they outstrip the carrying capacity of their natural environment. Every time there is a choice between starving and raiding, humans raid."
The most upsetting part of Mr. Dyer's analysis is his conclusion that Britain has already begun preparing for the strategic confrontations that will occur if climate change is not brought under control. Under the ominous code name "Lifeboat Britain", and at a cost measured in billions of pounds, the United Kingdom has now committed to massively upgrade its (already perfectly functional) nuclear arsenal.
Remember, Dyer is a military historian and an international affairs analyst--and an exceptionally astute one at that. As he said at the beginning of his presentation (again, I am paraphrasing): "I'm a journalist, so I have to keep coming up with something new to write about. I would lose my audience if I kept coming back to the same topic over and over, even if it is the most important thing I have to say, even if it deserves to be brought up again and again. You can't do that in a weekly column. I guess that's what books are for."
If this isn't cause for concern, I don't know what is.
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Mr. Dyer's latest book, which he says will be based heavily on the talk I just described, will be available in the fall. It is called Climate Wars.
If you want to read some of Dyer's recent articles on climate change, check out Extreme Climate and Extreme Politics, Climate Change: Evasion Replaces Denial, and Australia's Climate Change Election.
For some very interesting reading on another international storm-in-the-making, take a look at Mr. Dyer's recent articles about peak oil: Telling the Truth About Oil and After Peak Oil.
And finally, for Dyer's take on the British nuclear buildup and its relationship to climate change, check out British Nukes: Taking the Long View.
